Table of Contents
- The Engineering Mindset
- Management Doesn’t Work That Way
- What Can We Do?
- The Cost of Being Wrong
- How to Get Good
- What About Biases?
- Listen to Your Gut
The Engineering Mindset
As engineers, we’re used to basing our decisions on concrete data. There are many articles on the advantages of data-driven decision making, and for good reason: it works and it’s easy. The framework helps you find the solution to any problem in a few easy steps:
- Define the problem.
- Model the solution.
- Gather data on the parameters of the model.
- Run the model.
Congratulations. You’ve made the best decision possible.
Management Doesn’t Work That Way
The problem with people is that they’re notoriously hard to model, especially for us engineers who are used to dealing with hard data. Take the topic of performance management, for example. When should you fire someone? I wish there existed some magic formula that made this decision for me. But there isn’t. And every time a manager decides to fire—or hire—someone, they’re betting on their gut feeling being correct.
Some of these bets are blatantly obvious. However, that doesn’t affect their nature. A bet is still a bet, even if you’re confident that you have a 95% chance of winning.
What Can We Do?
Life outside of engineering is a game of poker. Thinking in Bets is all we can do. The good news is that while we can’t solve poker, we can get good at it. The key to making great decisions in leadership is pattern recognition—what Rands calls The Twinge.
The Cost of Being Wrong
I used to dodge decisions because I was worried about being wrong. This was even more true when my decisions would end up altering someone’s life path. I remember that in my first years as an engineer, I couldn’t write evaluations for the technical interviews that I conducted. The responsibility was too much, so I just stopped interviewing for a while. That’s a decision that I regret to this day, as it substantially slowed my growth.
The problem reappeared once I was promoted to a lead role. However, this time I couldn’t run away from it as I had to make some decisions. But I kept sweeping my problems under the rug—until I couldn’t anymore.
How to Get Good
Experience. Over time, you’ll recognize patterns in people’s behavior leading to predictable outcomes. Surprise is a great catalyst for learning. The more surprised you are by a certain outcome, the more you’ll learn from it. While this learning is a process that occurs naturally, it can also be sped up. I’ve found that routine reflections are a great way to learn faster.
Having enough data to recognize patterns is crucial. We know that human memory isn’t very reliable. For that reason, my advice is to document all your 1-1s extensively so you can look back and reflect on them without relying too much on your memory.
What About Biases?
I struggled with the sunk cost fallacy for far too long in real poker. Having made a decision, I rarely changed it, even when new cards were placed and I had new information to take into account.
Although I’m advocating for trusting your feelings as a manager, I don’t think letting your biases go unchecked is a good strategy. If anything, coming to rely on your senses while making important decisions makes biases even more critical. Analyze your decisions and try to figure out the contributing factors. Ask yourself questions like: “Did I make a rational decision with incomplete data, or did my biases cloud my judgment?” Keep at it, and before long, you’ll get rid of most of your biases.
Listen to Your Gut
There really is no better way to go about this. We have to decide with incomplete data. We’re going to make mistakes along the way—probably lots of them. And that’s okay. It is true that as a manager you have more power and thus more responsibility, but you shouldn’t make your job harder than it is. At the end of the day, it’s your job to make these sorts of decisions, and practicing is all you can do to get better.